Premier League Matchweek 31 Preview: Finding Value at Home

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After a 17-day hiatus from Premier League football, the games come thick and fast. Mid-week fixtures bleed into a packed weekend of action, with several intriguing matchups taking place as we continue the run-in to the end of the season.

Despite the fight for the league title being all but mathematically over, there are still some tasty fixtures this weekend, with local derbies (and not-so-local derbies) taking center stage. 

We take a look at three best bets for punters looking to find value in this weekend's fixtures. 

Ipswich (+180) vs Wolves

This year's relegation fodder appeared to be nailed on until yesterday, with the three newly promoted sides, Southampton, Leicester, and Ipswich, languishing at the bottom of the table, and Vitor Pereira’s revitalized Wolves going 12 points clear of the drop zone with a home win against West Ham on Tuesday. 

That was until Ipswich won their first match of the calendar year against heavily favored Bournemouth on the road. Striker Liam Delap smashed home his 11th goal of the season against the Cherries to give his side a 2-0 lead. Despite a nervy final 20 minutes, Ipswich held on to the win, cutting the gap between them and Wolves to nine points. 

While nine points is still a lot, it sets us up for a massive six-pointer this Saturday when Ipswich hosts Wolves at Portman Road. With Wolves still missing star striker Matheus Cunha, this is the best opportunity Ipswich will get to potentially save their season. 

Kieran Mckenna’s side appeared to finally find a bit of attacking momentum against Bournemouth, if they can manage to contain Wolves target man Jørgen Strand Larsen and use the momentum provided by a crowd with a glimmer of hope. I’d back them to get a result on Saturday. 

Crystal Palace (+145) vs Brighton

In the 143rd rendition of the M23 Derby, Crystal Palace hosts Brighton on Saturday morning. Oliver Glasner’s Crystal Palace are in their best form of the season, unbeaten in seven, with notable wins including a 4-1 drubbing of Aston Villa at home. 

Palace are playing for nothing but pride, sitting in 14th place, but their prolific attack has been clicking in recent weeks, with Eberiche Eze, Ismaila Sarr, and Eddie Nketiah all scoring against Fulham last weekend. Plus, the added boon of Jean Phillipe-Mateta, who will be steadily improving after his head injury against Milwall. 

Brighton sit in 8th place, with an outside chance at European football, but those European hopes took a hit on Tuesday when the seagulls lost 3-0 at home to Aston Villa. Fabian Huerzlers's side didn’t look as composed as they have in the past, conceding the opener from their own corner kick. Crystal Palace will look to punish them in the same fashion, and I back them to do so.

Brentford (+210) vs Chelsea

The largest odds from this trio of picks, Brentford host Chelsea at the G-Tech Community stadium on Sunday, but the Bees have shown many times this season how prolific they can be at home, and Thomas Frank's side played well despite losing to Newcastle mid-week, with two possible penalty appeals making the difference in the 2-1 defeat.

Chelsea has won four of their last five, but the wins came against Leicester, Southampton, and twice against FC København in the Europa Conference League. The 1-0 victories over Leicester and FC København were far from prolific. Chelsea has also lost their last four matches away from home. 

If Cole Palmers' dip in form continues, Chelsea may struggle to find goals against the Bees.

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