Grubby Balls Betting Preview: Matchweek 34

Photo via Getty Images and the BBC

It’s Matchweek 34 of the Premier League season and the end is just around the corner. With Liverpool confirming their championship status last weekend, and Ipswich finally securing that third relegation spot, this weekend has a feeling of anti-climax. Lucky for you, Grubby Balls is here to find some betting value on a rather dull weekend.

Wolves +1.5 (-135) vs Manchester City

Whilst first vs fourteenth doesn’t sound particularly enticing, Wolves and Manchester City top the Premier League form table at one and two respectively. Both sides are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League matches, and Wolves have won six in a row. 

Goals should be on the cards Friday afternoon, as both sides are playing high-scoring football, each netting on 11 occasions in their last five matches. Both teams are scoring at a similar rate per match, at 1.5 for Wolves and 1.9 for Manchester City. However, Wolves are doing so with around half as many touches in the opposition's penalty area. This bodes well for Friday afternoon, where Manchester City will likely have the bulk of possession. 

Wolves are much more defensively solid since Vitor Perreira came in, and that solidity when combined with their impressive counter-attacking play spearheaded by Matheus Cunha and Jorgan Strand Larsen could create problems for Manchester City. Winning at the Etihad is a different proposition, but there is plenty of reason to expect Wolves to keep Manchester City within that one-goal margin.

Southampton Tie or Win vs Leicester (-170)

This should be a real treat, the two absolute worst teams in the Premier League, with their relegation fates sealed, duking it out for nothing but bragging rights. Leicester’s last win came in January in a surprise away victory over Tottenham Hotspur, while Southampton last won on the first of February when they beat the other now-relegated side Ipswich. 

While Leicester sits above Southampton in the table, the Saints’ form is slightly better (though the margins are slim), they’ve scored four goals in their last five games and managed a draw against West Ham two matches ago. They’ve also conceded only in their last 15 matches, whereas Leicester have conceded in all of their last 30 matches.

The Foxes are playing impressively badly. Outside of a 2-2 draw against Brighton, they’ve lost their last 10 matches in a row, all without scoring a goal. Last weekend, they were pulled apart by Wolves, the defense looked amateurish, and to add insult to injury Facundo Buonanotte, the club’s second top scorer, came off injured.

Realistically, this match has draw written all over it, but Leicester are so poor that the only chance of a winner may come from a scrappy Saints goal.

Chelsea to win vs Liverpool (+120)

On paper, Liverpool should be heavily favored at Stamford Bridge on Sunday. The Premier League Champions haven’t lost a league game away at Chelsea since 2018.

However, Liverpool’s season is now mathematically over, they’re out of all cup competitions, and with four games to play confirmed their league title last weekend with a dominating 5-1 win over Tottenham Hotspur. Chelsea on the other hand are still competing to win the Conference League, and to secure one of the five Champions League places up for grabs.

Arne Slott confirmed in his pre-match press conference that supporters should expect squad rotation. “We’re not going to change everyone, but there will be a few players that come into the team. There will be a certain rotation in the upcoming games,” he said. 

Chelsea are still a good side, they’ve won their last three and scored 11 in their last five matches. So if squad rotation can be expected from the visitors, and an inevitable dip in intensity after winning the league, Chelsea should have a good chance at an upset.