Grubby Balls Betting Preview: FA Cup Semi-Finals

Photo by Tony O Brien/Reuters

While we do have a slate of Premier League Matches ahead of us this weekend, three of the teams involved in the European chase take part in the FA Cup, so we turn our attention there for two of the most intriguing FA Cup semi-finals in recent memory. 1996, 1991, and 1990 was the last time each of Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest, and Crystal Palace won a major trophy, and with Manchester City no longer at the height of their powers, they all have a chance to end their respective droughts. 

Crystal Palace to advance vs Aston Villa (+125)

It may come as a surprise considering league position and overall star power that we’ve tipped Crystal Palace to advance against Aston Villa, but a quick look at the head-to-head records between Unai Emery’s Aston Villa and Oliver Glasners Crystal Palace may surprise you. Since joining Palace in February 2024, Glasner’s come up against Emery’s Villa on four occasions, winning three and drawing once, most recently beating them 4-1 at Selhurst Park in February. 

Since then, Palace’s form has steadily improved, Eze, Mateta, and Sarr are all firing, and the team will take confidence from a strong showing away at Arsenal midweek in a 2-2 draw. Add to this the immense pressure Emery’s side are under to deliver a trophy, something Villa’s resurgence still lacks. Villa are also coming off two disappointing weeks, dropping out of the Champions League, and receiving a major blow to their hopes of requalifying when they lost to Manchester City mid-week. The FA Cup is perhaps the club’s last hope of marking a memorable season with tangible success.

When extra time and penalties are added into the equation, the underdog always has a better chance of snatching a result. I expect Villa to play nervously, and Palace to take advantage of that.

Nottingham Forest to advance vs Manchester City (+195)

We’re leaning in on the underdogs this weekend, but the odds here are surprisingly skewed towards Manchester City. Well not entirely surprisingly, it’s been since 2016/17, Pep Guardiola’s first season in Manchester, since City last went a season without winning a trophy, and the FA Cup represents their last chance at one this season (excluding the club world cup, which we are). 

However, on paper, the teams are neck and neck. Just one point separates them in the league, and they’ve split their two meetings this season, City winning 2-0 at the Etihad in December, and Forest winning 1-0 at the City Ground last month. The difference on Sunday will be desire, Forest simply want it more. This City team have won it all, and after a disappointing season, is an FA Cup really that exciting for a team that won the treble just two years ago? 

We’ve seen how vulnerable City can be to counterattacks this season, and Forest are the best of the best when it comes to that. I expect Forest to play to their strengths, let Manchester City control possession, and threaten them on the break. It will be a memorable day for Nottingham Forest, and nothing new to Manchester City, but on this occasion, I expect that to help the underdogs.