Grubby Balls Betting Preview: FA Cup Final and Matchweek 37

Photo via Sky Sports

It’s the penultimate weekend of the 2024/25 season, and because of a new deal between the FA and the Premier League, it’s also the FA Cup final, which for the first time since 2013 is being played before the end of the Premier League season. 

The change grants exclusivity to the earlier rounds of the FA Cup, which is why we had an extended break from league football back in March for the quarterfinals, it also benefits any team that may be in both a domestic and European cup final, though this year neither Manchester City nor Crystal Palace will have that privilege. 

For the spectator, it means three important days of football, with two interesting Friday afternoon matches in addition to the weekend's fixtures (though spoiler alert, we don’t think either of those is worth betting on).

Crystal Palace to win the cup (+200)

All signs point to Manchester City when predicting the outcome of this year's FA Cup final, they’re unbeaten in seven, experienced cup finalists, and attempting to keep a streak of seven consecutive trophy-winning seasons alive. 

However, we’re throwing the bet with your head not with your heart adage out the window for this one, and backing Crystal Palace to lift their first trophy in over 34 years.

There’s no reason to count out Oliver Glasner’s side. They’re on a run of five games unbeaten, and comfortably dispatched Aston Villa 3-0 in the semi-finals. With their victory over Tottenham Hotspur last weekend, they secured a record high 49-points in a single Premier League season. Their front three of Jean Phillipe-Mateta, Eberiche Eze, and Ismaila Sarr have tallied a combined 43 goals and assists in the league campaign. They ripped Tottenham Hotspur apart on the counter last weekend, and will aim to do the same thing to the better, but not invincible, City backline at Wembley. 

Southampton showed in their 0-0 draw with Manchester City last weekend that a compact back five can still frustrate City, who failed to break down the bottom of the table side. This is the same system Palace plays, but the Eagles have more pace and quality in their wing-backs, with Tyrick Mitchell and Daniel Munoz both enjoying good seasons, the latter especially. 

If Crystal Palace can contain City in a low block, and capitalize on counter-attacks, they have a solid chance of ending their nearly three and half decade trophy drought. 

West Ham to win vs Nottingham Forest, draw no bet (-105)

West Ham earned arguably their best result since Graham Potter joined the club last weekend, beating Manchester United 2-0 at Old Trafford. The Hammers have been largely underwhelming since Potter joined the club, but some solid performances in recent weeks against Tottenham Hotspur and Brighton finally materialized into three points. 

The decision to play Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus proved to be the right one for the away side and is likely what we’ll see them do when Nottingham Forest visits this weekend. However, the whole team played well. James Ward-Prowse had his best game of the season in midfield, and Aaron Wan-Bissaka had another good game in what’s been a quiet but successful season for the full-back.

Nottingham Forest on the other hand played out a highly disappointing 2-2 draw with relegated Leicester, and while they’ve now secured a place in one of the three European competitions for next season, they’ve now slid from third down to seventh, making the chance of earning Champions League football increasingly unlikely. A bad afternoon was made worse as Taiwo Awoniyi came off injured late, and has now gone through emergency surgery to repair an abdominal injury. 

In addition, on the five occasions West Ham and Nottingham Forest have played since Nottingham Forest’s promotion to the Premier League in 2022, the home side have won every time.

Forest is likely to have one eye on next week's marquee match-up with Chelsea, which will decide the European placements for both clubs. However, West Ham will offer up a stiff test at the weekend, one which Nottingham Forest may not pass.

Tie Or Newcastle, vs Arsenal (-125)

It’s fair to say at this point that Arsenal’s season is a bit of a mess. After crashing out of the Champions League to PSG, after which Mikel Arteta embarrassingly said that his side deserved to win over the two legs, the Gunners have now failed to win in their last five. After two years of progression under Arteta, their points total has plummeted, and now with no chance of silverware, the Spaniard’s future seems uncertain.

Newcastle continues to impress, they’ve climbed up to the third in the table, in a season that’s already a momentous success after winning the League Cup. Last weekend they comfortably beat fellow Champions League hopefuls Chelsea 2-0 at St. James’s Park, and they’ll expect to keep up the momentum at the Emirates on Sunday. 

Newcastle have won all three of their meetings with Arsenal this season, beating them 1-0 in the league, and 2-0 both home and away in the League Cup. Eddie Howe’s side has a chance to go second overall if they beat Arsenal this weekend, and they may do it comfortably.